[simonhla]

Well I alreayd posted something similar in another thread but I felt given the nature of the post and the variety of topics covered herein it was worth giving it its own thread. I have also made many important amendments and additions to make this a more well rounded transfer and development analysis.

There are many topics here that I would love to hear people's opinion on. One sometimes forgets that some people may view the same club you support completely differently and I am always delighted to hear other persectoves. So without further ado, I have a few points:

1. Berbatov Transfer negotiations. I don't think the fee being will be anything like the 28M quoted. There is an article I have already seen this morning in the MEN saying that Utd haven't even lodged a bid yet and consider his valuation to be under 24M. Any likely deal is to involve a substantial up front fee of around 15-18M and then an additional 6-8m for performance related add ons. This seems standard practice now. For that kind of fee I think this will be a good signing considering Utd as a club always have to pay a premium in the market. Another possibility also worth preparing for is the club's willingness to use Louis Saha (The French Anderton) as a makeweight, with his valuation being about 5m. With Spurs looking to sign a target man as a replacement it is a possibility but whether they would be interested in taking on Samuel L Jackson's character from unbreakable, Mr. Glass for those who haven't seen it (glass by name and nature) at such high wages remains to be seen.

2. Alternatives to Berbatov. The only other striker I would prefer to see in Utd colors would be Karim Benzema but I can't see him being released by Lyon for less then 40m. Their president Aulas is a canny operator and has a history of extracting enormous fees for players i.e. 25m for Essien, 23m for Diarra (who is no world beater) and 18m odd for Tiago (who has been a flop elsewhere). I think he even got about 15m for Eric Abidal who has been a disaster for Barcelona (so bad he actually asked to be dropped). Benzema has the benefit of having limitless potential and being so young the cost can be amortized over many years. He also retains resale value for a long time, unlike Berbatov who, at 27, is a depreciating asset almost as soon as he is signed.

Huntelaar has been touted by many but this is a player who is only about half as good as Berbatov technically and much less well rounded. Berbatov really does have it all. He is much quicker than people give him credit for but that is the least important aspect of his game. He has wonderful vision, a great touch, is a good finisher, great in the air, is a tremendous physical presence and can lead the line or play as a link player. He can do it in the box, otuside of the box. Hurt the opposition with a deft flick, a killer through ball, an explosive shot from distance or a clinical finish from close range. It's no wonder Fergie loves him. His ability and style of play is reminiscent of Dennis Bergkamp and Eric Cantona. Whether he wil be as good remains to be seen but he is a player that (once in a Utd shirt) will excite me tremendously (does this make is sound like my wife lives a frustrated existence?). Huntelaar on the other hand is tremendously one dimensional.

Like may people he reminds me of RVN in that he is an old fashioned fox in the box. But it also hasn't escaped me that he is a watered down version of the great man. I am of the opinion so many Utd fans have hankered after him simply because of the obvious similarities with the legendary red. Unfortunately the game has really moved on immeasurably in recent years and strikers of this nature are truely a dying breed. And for a reason because the proclivity of many manger to play a more sophisticated tactical system often utilizing 5 in midfiel, mean it is more important than ever that forwards be multi faceted in their skills sets and ability to interchange roles. The limited scope of a player like Huntelaar who is only really effective in the 18 yard box, harps back to an outdated system of playing Utd have left behind. Berbatov on the other hand is much more fluid and fits the system almost perfectly.

4. Doubts. If there is a question mark over the big Bulgarian it is over his age and temperament. On the second issue i think we can agree it is understandable to hanker for a move to a champions league club, and even though this summer we as Utd fans are learning the hard way how hard it is to take when your star player throws a hissy fit and wants to leave at least in this case a discernable career evolution (from Uefa cup candidates to European Champions) can be appreciated. It's hard to make the same Case in the Ronaldo saga....although more of that later. At 27 Berbatov is right to grab the chance of his biggest career move.

With regards to his age then this is only relevent when analyzing the fee. He has a good few many years left in him not least because his greatest asset is his football brain and his strength. Not relying on pace means that he is not susceptible to the rapid decline many explosive footballers can suffer as they approach their thirties. If I had to cite a modern example of what I mean then I would ask you to look at the cases of Dennis Bergkamp or Teddy Sheringham. Both played their best football in their late twenties and thirties and both were players who relied on guile rather than physical atrributes. And what players they were. Now look at explosive stars such as Henry or Ronaldo (of the buck toothed, chubby Brazilian variety not the greasy haired, treacherous Portuguese kind). Both have deterioated dramatically as they lost the ability to consistently produce their stunning changes of pace. Whether this be due to vagarities of time or debilitating injuries is immiterial. L'il mickey Owen is another example.

5. Rooney. To continue this theme it is another reason why i believe Wayne Rooney, a player who initially burst onto the scene with flashes of explosive pace and skill, will actually get much much better with age. Rooney has show tremendous development in the last three years. Arguably becoming more productive now as a playmaker and provider of goals than a scorer of them. His touch and vision are outstanding and improving all the time. His finishing will too with time get better and may turn out to be the true heir to Cantona's throne. He is the player who really makes Utd tick. And although Ronaldo has eclipsed him to this point I feel that overall Rooney will end up the better and more durable player. I fear that Ronaldo for all his explosiveness, is only one serious injury away from being half the player he currently is. It's not hard to see if he lost half a yard of pace he'd been a significantly reduced threat. Time will blunt the edge of his sword before it even dulls Rooney's.

6. Variety. Utd as a club have some excellent crossers of the ball in Nani (enormously under rated in that department....he is potentially in Beckham class of wide delivery according to the soon to be sorely missed Carlos Quieroz), Fletcher (another under rated and fabulous player), Hargreaves and Rooney. Having berbatov to add that aerial threat (and Ronaldo if he is still around) will give Utd an added dimension.

7. Learning lessons from the past. The last time we won the European cup we added only Quinton Fortune, Mikael SIlvestre, Mark Bosnich and Massimo Taibi to our squad in the next few months. That squad had already peaked. This current squad has, in my opinion, won the old Big Ears before their time and adding Berbatov to the mix is the perfect evolution of an already fantastic but not perfect squad.

Remaining summer priorities (assuming Berbatov signs)

1. Finding a replacement for CQ. A hard task and not one that should be rushed into. Yet I fear for the legion of foreign (and mainly Portuguese speaking) stars and their contentment in the club without a trusted buffer between themselves and the manager. I would be very interested to see Michael Laudrup considered for the post. He did a fantastic job in the last two years in management and is currently available. He has extensive European experience, is respected, is highly regarded on the continent and is multi-lingual. Head and shoulders above anyone else I have seen mentioned. Yet someting tells me Fergie has a surprise up his sleeve. Sad as it is, I don't think McClair or Phelan have the credentials to step up. And as for the rumors surrounding Poyet......the less said the better.

2. Resolve the Ronaldo issue. This will be much harder with CQ having left but he needs to be forced to tow the line. For the self styled 'biggest club in the world' we can't be seen to be incapable of keeping our best players. Whether as fans we like it or not, the club is dependent on merchandising and sponsorship revenue and so the club must carefully consider the effect any sale has on its image. That said the club can't pander to him too much, regardless of how much we might want him to stay (in footballing and commercial terms, not personal ones) because it sends a bad message to the dressing room. The saga took a twist today when Chelsea bid 48M for Robinho. Madrid will not respond to that until they have signed CR7. So not only would MUFC be losing their most potent player but they would also be facilitating the strengthening of their deadliest rivals. Clearly this cannot be allowed to happen. CR7 should only be allowed to leave in a cash plus Robinho type deal that sees the brazilian wing wizard come to us and Utd retain face. How realistic or desirable is that? I for one am torn, yet I do think there is more to come from Ronaldo. I think his tune might change once he finally sees Fergie face to face.

3. Sign additional defensive cover. If Silvestre leaves (I actually think we should keep him as he is happy to be a squad player and is more than a competent deputy at home and in Europe, plus is flexible being able to play at left back and in the middle) then we will be desperately short of cover now Pique has also gone. As I can see it our first team defenders would be: Brown, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, O'shea, Neville, Evans and Simpson (?). That's paper thin. One or two injuries to first teamers and we are in trouble. A decent quality center half is a required signing. The return of Neville is a big boost but not enough to get through a demanding season that will include a debilitating Christmas time trip to play in the commercially lucrative, yet otherwise annoying and pointless, World Club Championship.

And finally.............sign Tevez up to a long term deal. I think the bet is still to come from Carlitos. The man has alreayd proved himself to be a little beast and after a proper summer's rest (first time in a while for him), a year settling in, boosted confidence and proper depth up front meaning he doesn't have to play in nearly every game and I think he will be even better this year. The addition of the perfect foil in Berbatov should be the icing on the cake that really sees him come into his own.

Apologies for the epic length of this post.

[GocartMozart]

Originally Posted by simonhla

Well I alreayd posted something similar in another thread but I felt given the nature of the post and the variety of topics covered herein it was worth giving it its own thread. I have also made many important amendments and additions to make this a more well rounded transfer and development analysis.

Apologies for the epic length of this post.

An epic post deservant of an epic response. Unfortunately I'm only marginally up to the task.

Welcome to the forum, and with posts like this, you’ll fit right in to our mindset of lengthy indepth discussions, and comprehensive analysis of all issues United. Our focus has always been to differentiate ourselves from other forums via a community more interested in arguing ad nausea as opposed to quick blurbs of meaningless drivel.

1. From what I understand the papers are quoting a 28 million dollar deal with 18 million up front and 10 based on performance and appearances. That’s a lot of money regardless, but I do agree, it makes it far more palatable. I personally think it’s still steap for a 27 year old, but it is at least within the realm of reason.

I don’t think Saha will be traded strictly to counter balance the fee paid for Dimitar. If Saha goes, it will be strictly because we don’t need him. United have a history of keeping players that show loyalty. This is a case where United have given more than they’ve received, but I just don’t see United worrying about 5 million pounds, when they honestly have no further backup for Dimitar (who is also fairly injury prone) or any of the other two strikers. He will become the Silvestre of the forward line; a reserve backup that only gets a chance to play in extreme circumstances.

2. The only other striker I would prefer to see in Utd colors would be Karim Benzema not only is too expensive, but he has made comments that make it clear he’s not too excited about the prospect of joining United. Without his full desire behind the deal, there’s no way it gets done.

As far as Huntelaar is concerned, I’m sure he is a dying breed, because the skill set Is fairly hard to find. I don’t buy the concept that tactical formation across the continent have moved onto a more fluid five man midfield with one flexible striker. I think there is room for a very disciplined system where Huntelaar and Ruud would be successful, however I do agree they aren’t built for the United system. I’d also like to say that this tactic really is actually newer than 5 years. Roma may have been doing it for three years, while United have been doing it since January of 2006.

4. As far as age has anything to do with it, I think a lot of it is about drive. Few players can go over twenty years playing football and still have the desire. Even fewer have the desire to be better as they get older. Luca Toni is another example I’d like to give. Considering Berbatov hasn’t truly seen much of the success United have obtained, I think he’ll be motivated.

5. As United’s assist leader, Berbatov must salivate at the idea of being offered through balls by the scouser.

6. Berbatov aerial threat is actually one of the main reasons I think Ferguson does this deal. Our front line is glaringly poor at offering aerial presence, and it’s not an accident that a significant percentage of United’s goals came from Ronaldo’s head. The crosses and set pieces are there, however we just need more men in the box capable of doing the business.

7. Learning lessons from the past. The last time we won the European cup we added only Quinton Fortune, Mikael SIlvestre, Mark Bosnich and Massimo Taibi to our squad in the next few months. That squad had already peaked. This current squad has, in my opinion, won the old Big Ears before their time and adding Berbatov to the mix is the perfect evolution of an already fantastic but not perfect squad.

brilliant point. I'd actually go back to 1968. I think winning actually was a turning point for many of the players int eh team, and they lost something after that. I think that's a more important lesson, than our transfer history post our success.

[simonhla]

Thanks for posting a response. This is definitely the forum I have been looking for. Its so hard to find informed and measured debate anywhere on the internet without having to suffer random attacks of vitriol should one espouse an opinion that deviates from the accepted norm or touches on someone's sensibilities. So thanks again for the welcome and thanks again for your post.

I agree about the emergence of the five man midfield and pseudo "strikerless" formation. Roma can indeed take credit for that but even Spaletti himself stumbled upon it through necesseity rather than design (All his first choice forwards were injured and he had to field attacking midfielder Totti as his lone front man....inevitbaly FT spent most of his time in midfield) but it is also clear that this kind of fluid interchanging attacking play has been in evolution for some years now. This is more true on the continent than in England.

An addendum to my post from yesterday, and i have to say a shocking oversight on my part, is the emergence of Paolo Bento as a possible successor to CQ. For those hearing the name for the first time, Bento is the Sporting Lisbon head coach. He is only 39 and has already served under the (not so) Special One. He has been an enormous success for S.Lisbon in the last two seasons and has only 1 year left on his contract. If the rumor mills are to be believed, he was the departing recommendation of Carlos Q.

Now of course the tabloids are having a field day with this because he is a 'friend' of CR7 and will be the ace in the hole that enables wily Fergie to pursuade the Portuguese 'winker' (tmTHE SUN) to stay. The reality of course is that if he is interested in Bento (Which I hope he is) it is for a variety of other reasons. The first is related.....he would be the perfect buffer for the club's legions of Portuguese speakers. Secondly he has European experience and a european scouting network. Thridly he is a highly respected and apparently tactically sophisticated coach. Fourthly he has, it would seem, all the presence it needs to control and lead a dressing room (if required) and finally....Portuguese speakers are actually highly sought after in todays market. Players from Brazil and Portugal are typically so highly coveted that having a native speaker in your senior staff can be a major help to securing the signatures of top talent. CQ has certainly proved that.

Whatever happens, the coming weeks will be interesting, although this is the first transfer window I actually want to come to an end sooner rather than later.

[funkdoctorspock]

With the uncertainty at the end of the season and early on this preseason of Gary Neville, the rumoured departures of Silvestre, Pique [which happened unfortunately], and Evans, there was a real concern that United would have to look to improving there defensive cover.

But, in listening to Sir Alex, there doesn't seem to be too much concern now. Just a couple of simple questions:

1. Is Danny Simpson loaned out again, sold, or kept on the first team?
2. Should United look into extending Silvestre's contract and keep him on as a backup to Evra? Or do United look into the January transfer window to bring in new cover for Evra?
3. What to do about the possible Neville/Brown starting situation.

Here imo is United's starting defensive line and then backups heading into the new season:

Brown -------------------- Ferdinand ------------------------ Vidic ---------------- Evra

Neville -------------------- O'Shea --------------------------- Evans -------------- Silvestre

Simpson

Evans comes back into the fold replacing departed Pique, Neville returns which saves United from using Hargreaves/Fletcher in an emergency rightback situation. And Simpson has the ability to play on either the right or left.

Thanks for the heads up on Bento. Had no idea about the year left on the contract. Would definitely make sense to take a look at him, but:

a. would he be interested in joining as an assistant?
b. would poaching Sporting's manager strain relations between the clubs?

As for Berbatov and your reasoning for his temperment. If he was so craving CL football, why did he sign with Spurs when United were clearly interested? Didn't United put in a bid at the time too? I simply don't by your reasoning.

Is Berbatov the striker United fans want to see come into this squad? At the end of the day we have to trust United management and judgement of the team.

As to whether he'll be a success in the United setup, that will be another chapter written if the transfer goes through.

Anyways, I think we can all agree that another striker definitely needs to be added to the squad.

[simonhla]

You see I think that if United had seriously tried to sign Berbatov at the time you signed for Tottenham, he would clearly have signed for us. I don't see any situation in which any player would sign for SPurs (in this era anyway) and then turn around and say "Doh, I should have signed for United instead but i didn't think there was much of a difference". Utd were credited with an interest but i really don't think they made any concerted effort to sign him.

Oh and by the way....I said in another thread that Levy was crazy....we saw evidence of that today.

[mercinho707]

Rumour that United will sign new striker in days to come - Berbatov?


http://www.caughtoffside.com/2008/08...-sir-alex-bid/